Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
